What the 2026 SVB wine report means for your wine marketing
SVB says the wine market is splitting into wineries that adapt and wineries that wait. The difference is execution, and your visuals are part of it.
The 2026 SVB State of the U.S. Wine Industry Report came out in January, and it does not read like the gloomy coverage suggested.
Yes, volume is down again. But the report's real finding is sharper: the industry is splitting into wineries that adapt and wineries that wait.
Rob McMillan, the report's author, puts it plainly: "success today is behavioral." The wineries growing through this correction are not luckier. They are executing differently.
Here is what the report says, what SVB's June follow-up on direct-to-consumer sales added, and what both mean for how you market your wine through the rest of 2026.
Updated September 15, 2026 with SVB's June Direct-to-Consumer Wine Report and Outshinery's September study of 189 wine storefronts.
The numbers behind the headlines
SVB estimates U.S. wine volume ended 2025 at roughly 329 million cases, down from 335.9 million in 2024. Industry revenue landed near $74.3 billion, down from $75.5 billion.
The forecast: declines moderate in 2026, a bumpy bottom forms in 2027 and 2028, then slow, modest growth returns.
McMillan is blunt about what that bottom will not do. "What has been normal will not be normal again. The rising tide won't lift all boats after we bottom."
In other words, waiting for recovery is not a plan. The recovery will reward wineries that changed before it arrived.
The market is splitting, not sinking
The most useful data in the report is the gap between performers.
Top-quartile wineries grew sales 8 percent in 2025. The bottom quartile declined 10.2 percent. The top quartile was the only group to report positive average sales growth at all.
Same market. Same consumer headwinds. Opposite outcomes.
SVB's analysis of what separates the two groups comes down to behavior, not size or region:
- Clear target positioning instead of broad, unfocused messaging
- Monthly customer touchpoints instead of irregular, event-driven contact
- Digital presence that adds to the consumer experience, not sporadic posting
- Price discipline instead of frequent discounting
The top quartile was the only group with positive average sales growth in 2025. The difference was execution, not luck.
Passive demand is over
The report's most quotable line is about the old model of waiting for customers to show up. SVB says that era "officially ended in 2022 but not everyone received the memo."
One surveyed winery said it directly: "Relying on people coming to the tasting room no longer works. We've seen a drop in visitors… we have to go to where the consumers are."
Another reframed the tasting room entirely: "People come for a story, not just a pour."
SVB also lists what no longer works: large events that produce noise but not loyalty, passive club acquisition, discounting to drive volume, and waiting on tourism traffic.
If your marketing plan still assumes foot traffic will fix the year, the data says otherwise.
DTC means meeting buyers where they live
Direct-to-consumer remains the engine. DTC accounts for 68 percent of the average surveyed winery's revenue, and it outperformed wholesale in SVB's 2025 survey.
But the report pushes wineries past the tasting room version of DTC. SVB's guidance: "DtC tactics need to evolve from the overreliance on hospitality and experience at the winery, to an expanded view of DtC that meets the consumer where they live."
Where consumers live is digital. Your website, your club emails, your social feed, your marketplace listings.
The report found top performers use digital tools as amplifiers of their brand and club, with a positive correlation to DTC success. Struggling wineries describe their digital presence as sporadic and reactive.
The June update: the gap got wider
In June 2026, SVB published its separate Direct-to-Consumer Wine Report, built on responses from 450 family wineries. Its headline is the same story, six months further along.
Top-quartile wineries grew DTC revenue 22 percent. The median winery was flat. The bottom quartile declined 13 percent. SVB's summary: the steepest part of the decline may be behind us, the performance gap is widening, and "execution decides DtC channel success."
Two details matter for marketing. Dollar sales grew faster than cases sold, which SVB reads as discounting being used strategically rather than by reflex. And wines at higher price points held or grew while lower price points declined in both volume and revenue. Wineries competing on value are outperforming wineries competing on price.
Tasting room and wine club still account for 72 percent of DTC revenue, which is where SVB sees both the risk and the opportunity concentrated.
Same finding, twice in one year: the wineries pulling ahead are the ones executing on positioning, relationships and price, not the ones waiting for the market to turn.
The SVB reports never mention product imagery. So this next part is our read, based on what we see across the 2,000+ beverage brands Outshinery has served, and on what we measured in September.
What this means for your visuals
If engagement replaces exposure, your digital storefront does the work your tasting room used to do. The first thing a buyer meets there is not your story or your tasting notes. It is your product image.
Every behavior SVB credits to top performers has a visual layer:
- Clear positioning needs a consistent image library, every SKU, every vintage, every channel
- Monthly touchpoints need fresh imagery for club emails and releases, on schedule
- Meeting buyers where they live means images that hold up on a phone screen at thumbnail size
- Price discipline needs visuals that justify the price instead of quietly undercutting it
In September 2026 we measured how far the typical catalog sits from that standard. Across 189 wine storefronts and 11,111 wines, The State of Wine Product Imagery 2026 found that 74% of wine storefronts carry product images in mismatched proportions, and 82% of wine listings have exactly one photo. The most expensive wine in the catalog gets no more images than the cheapest, and the same resolution.
Put that next to SVB's finding that higher price points are the ones holding up. A catalog that presents its premium wine exactly like its entry wine is not making the case for the price.
A winery executing the SVB playbook with a patchwork image library is sending mixed signals. The strategy says premium and planned. The visuals say improvised.
Where Outshinery fits
Outshinery Studio produces photorealistic product imagery for wine, beer, and spirits brands, crafted by trained 3D artists from your label file and container spec. No photoshoot, no shipping bottles, and your imagery can be ready before the vintage is bottled.
Studio renders are consistent by definition. Same lighting, same treatment, across every SKU and every vintage, which is exactly the library a clear brand position requires.
For standard wine bottles with simpler labels, Outshinery Lite is a separate self-serve tool: upload your label, pick your bottle and closure, and receive a photorealistic bottle shot in about an hour for $29. Lite is built for speed on standard formats, not for specialty finishes, which belong with Studio.
Either way, the goal is the same. When a buyer meets your wine on a screen, the image should do the selling.
Not sure where your visuals stand today? Run them through the free Visual Scorecard and see your imagery the way a buyer does.
Frequently asked questions
What is the SVB State of the U.S. Wine Industry Report?
It is an annual analysis of the U.S. wine market published by Silicon Valley Bank's Wine Division, written by Rob McMillan and now in its 26th consecutive year. The New York Times has described it as "probably the most influential analysis of its kind."
What does the 2026 SVB report predict for the wine market?
SVB expects volume declines to moderate in 2026, a bumpy bottom in 2027 and 2028, then slow, modest growth. U.S. wine volume ended 2025 at roughly 329 million cases with industry revenue near $74.3 billion. SVB's June 2026 Direct-to-Consumer Wine Report added that the steepest part of the decline may be behind us, but a return to positive momentum has not yet materialized.
What are top-performing wineries doing differently in 2026?
Per SVB's survey data, top-quartile wineries grew sales 8 percent in 2025 by treating the club as the core of the business, keeping monthly customer touchpoints, holding price discipline, and using digital channels as amplifiers of the brand. The bottom quartile declined 10.2 percent. SVB's June 2026 DTC report found the same split widening: top-quartile DTC revenue up 22 percent, bottom quartile down 13 percent.
How should small wineries respond to the demand correction?
SVB's guidance is to adapt now rather than wait for a return to normal. That means active consumer engagement, a clear brand position, disciplined pricing, and DTC tactics that reach buyers beyond the tasting room, including a professional digital storefront.
