What the 2026 SVB wine report means for your wine marketing

SVB says the wine market is splitting into wineries that adapt and wineries that wait. The difference is execution, and your visuals are part of it.

Laurie Millotte, Founder and Chief Amazement Officer at Outshinery

Pie chart sculpted from colored foam with a dollar sign on the largest slice, illustrating how the 2026 SVB wine report splits the market between wineries that grow and wineries that decline

The 2026 SVB State of the U.S. Wine Industry Report is out, and it does not read like the gloomy coverage suggests.

Yes, volume is down again. But the report's real finding is sharper: the industry is splitting into wineries that adapt and wineries that wait.

Rob McMillan, the report's author, puts it plainly: "success today is behavioral." The wineries growing through this correction are not luckier. They are executing differently.

Here is what the report actually says, and what it means for how you market your wine this year.

The numbers behind the headlines

SVB estimates U.S. wine volume ended 2025 at roughly 329 million cases, down from 335.9 million in 2024. Industry revenue landed near $74.3 billion, down from $75.5 billion.

The forecast: declines moderate in 2026, a bumpy bottom forms in 2027 and 2028, then slow, modest growth returns.

McMillan is blunt about what that bottom will not do. "What has been normal will not be normal again. The rising tide won't lift all boats after we bottom."

In other words, waiting for recovery is not a plan. The recovery will reward wineries that changed before it arrived.

The market is splitting, not sinking

The most useful data in the report is the gap between performers.

Top-quartile wineries grew sales 8 percent in 2025. The bottom quartile declined 10.2 percent. The top quartile was the only group to report positive average sales growth at all.

Same market. Same consumer headwinds. Opposite outcomes.

SVB's analysis of what separates the two groups comes down to behavior, not size or region:

Clear target positioning instead of broad, unfocused messaging
Monthly customer touchpoints instead of irregular, event-driven contact
Digital presence that adds to the consumer experience, not sporadic posting
Price discipline instead of frequent discounting

The top quartile was the only group with positive average sales growth in 2025. The difference was execution, not luck.

Passive demand is over

The report's most quotable line is about the old model of waiting for customers to show up. SVB says that era "officially ended in 2022 but not everyone received the memo."

One surveyed winery said it directly: "Relying on people coming to the tasting room no longer works. We've seen a drop in visitors… we have to go to where the consumers are."

Another reframed the tasting room entirely: "People come for a story, not just a pour."

SVB also lists what no longer works: large events that produce noise but not loyalty, passive club acquisition, discounting to drive volume, and waiting on tourism traffic.

If your marketing plan still assumes foot traffic will fix the year, the data says otherwise.

Illustration of a person pinning strategy notes to a board, representing the execution choices that separate top-performing wineries in the 2026 SVB report

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DTC means meeting buyers where they live

Direct-to-consumer remains the engine. DTC accounts for 68 percent of the average surveyed winery's revenue, and it outperformed wholesale in SVB's 2025 survey.

But the report pushes wineries past the tasting room version of DTC. SVB's guidance: "DtC tactics need to evolve from the overreliance on hospitality and experience at the winery, to an expanded view of DtC that meets the consumer where they live."

Where consumers live is digital. Your website, your club emails, your social feed, your marketplace listings.

The report found top performers use digital tools as amplifiers of their brand and club, with a positive correlation to DTC success. Struggling wineries describe their digital presence as sporadic and reactive.

The SVB report never mentions product imagery. So this next part is our read, based on what we see across the 2,000+ beverage brands Outshinery has served.

What this means for your visuals

If engagement replaces exposure, your digital storefront does the work your tasting room used to do. The first thing a buyer meets there is not your story or your tasting notes. It is your product image.

Every behavior SVB credits to top performers has a visual layer:

Clear positioning needs a consistent image library, every SKU, every vintage, every channel
Monthly touchpoints need fresh imagery for club emails and releases, on schedule
Meeting buyers where they live means images that hold up on a phone screen at thumbnail size
Price discipline needs visuals that justify the price instead of quietly undercutting it

A winery executing the SVB playbook with a patchwork image library is sending mixed signals. The strategy says premium and planned. The visuals say improvised.

Where Outshinery fits

Outshinery Studio produces photorealistic product imagery for wine, beer, and spirits brands, crafted by trained 3D artists from your label file and container spec. No photoshoot, no shipping bottles, and your imagery can be ready before the vintage is bottled.

Studio renders are consistent by definition. Same lighting, same treatment, across every SKU and every vintage, which is exactly the library a clear brand position requires.

Lake Breeze Aura red and Okanagan Viognier white wine bottle shots side by side, two different labels rendered with the same lighting and treatment to show Studio's SKU-to-SKU consistency — Two different Lake Breeze labels, same lighting and finish. That consistency is what a clear brand position looks like on the digital shelf.

For standard wine bottles with simpler labels, Outshinery Lite is a separate self-serve tool: upload your label, pick your bottle and closure, and receive a photorealistic bottle shot in about an hour for $29. Lite is built for speed on standard formats, not for specialty finishes, which belong with Studio.

Benevolent Neglect and Benevolent Neglect GSM wine bottle shots side by side on a pink background, standard format bottles with clean labels suited to Outshinery Lite — Standard bottles, clean labels, ready to sell. Exactly the kind of shot Lite turns around in about an hour.

Either way, the goal is the same. When a buyer meets your wine on a screen, the image should do the selling.

Not sure where your visuals stand today? Run them through the free Visual Scorecard and see your imagery the way a buyer does.

Frequently asked questions

What is the SVB State of the U.S. Wine Industry Report?

It is an annual analysis of the U.S. wine market published by Silicon Valley Bank's Wine Division, written by Rob McMillan and now in its 26th consecutive year. The New York Times has described it as "probably the most influential analysis of its kind."

What does the 2026 SVB report predict for the wine market?

SVB expects volume declines to moderate in 2026, a bumpy bottom in 2027 and 2028, then slow, modest growth. U.S. wine volume ended 2025 at roughly 329 million cases with industry revenue near $74.3 billion.

What are top-performing wineries doing differently in 2026?

Per SVB's survey data, top-quartile wineries grew sales 8 percent in 2025 by treating the club as the core of the business, keeping monthly customer touchpoints, holding price discipline, and using digital channels as amplifiers of the brand. The bottom quartile declined 10.2 percent.

How should small wineries respond to the demand correction?

SVB's guidance is to adapt now rather than wait for a return to normal. That means active consumer engagement, a clear brand position, disciplined pricing, and DTC tactics that reach buyers beyond the tasting room, including a professional digital storefront.